Lets hope the weather forecast is wrong…

[vern]

The NAM isn’t very reliable 3 days out, however, in this instance it does resemble the GFS (we may need a sub-forum for cyclist weather geeks).

[Greenbelt]

@vern 85154 wrote:

The NAM isn’t very reliable 3 days out, however, in this instance it does resemble the GFS (we may need a sub-forum for cyclist weather geeks).

Here’s morning LWX discussion, with all the sexy met abbrevs:

FROM LATE THU INTO MIDDAY FRI…WAVES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER
ACTIVITY LIKELY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL ADD THE ELEMENT OF MIXING
DOWN ISOLATED GUSTY TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS – ESPEC ON FRI AFTN.
THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER IS FLOODING FROM THE 1-3 INCHES OF EXPECTED
QPF…LOCALLY HIGHER. THE SFC SYSTEM NOT QUITE IN CONSENSUS AMONGST
THE MED RANGE MEMBERS…BUT A TREND TOWARD THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK NEAR THE AREA DURING THE FIRST-HALF OF THE DAY ON FRI. THE
TRACK OF THE STRONGER OF THE SFC LOWS WILL DETERMINE THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. THE MORE OF OUR AREA THAT IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LOW – THE BETTER THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
CONVECTION. THE FURTHER SOUTH THE LOW IS RELATIVE TO OUR
REGION…THE MORE GENERAL STRATIFORM AND MAINLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAIN.

[jrenaut]

OH NO not expected QPF!

What’s QPF?

And Greenbelt, how did you post that without the forum anti-shouting alarm going off?

[consularrider]

Well, in the past six B2WDs, we’ve only had one rainy morning, quello che sara, sara.

[cyclingfool]

@jrenaut 85159 wrote:

OH NO not expected QPF!

What’s QPF?

QPF?! Run for the hills!

On another note, sorry, but I couldn’t resist the temptation. Excuse my snarkiness.

[jrenaut]

Oh, I certainly could have Googled it if I actually cared. And really, in hindsight, I should have made my joke about “CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MED RANGE MEMBERS”.

[PotomacCyclist]

Updated forecast from the National Weather Service:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]5586[/ATTACH]

[Greenbelt]

@jrenaut 85159 wrote:

OH NO not expected QPF!

What’s QPF?

And Greenbelt, how did you post that without the forum anti-shouting alarm going off?

Here zur QPF, man. (Real Mets use all CAPS and sexy abbrevs b/c they transmit in Morse I think and need save chars)

[Greenbelt]

All seriousness aside, this much rain on Friday morning will probably create another weekly flood on the NE Branch trail low point by the rail bridge.

[Vicegrip]

I like riding in the rain as I (now) have the right gear and after some less than positive early results have learned how to. I understand the rain or shine thing but I don’t think this sounds like the right weather to entice new riders to consider commuting. It also seems that forecasts are getting better in the one or 2 day out window. Wednesday will likely have a solid forecast of what Friday is going to look like.

[skins_brew]

@Greenbelt 85202 wrote:

All seriousness aside, this much rain on Friday morning will probably create another weekly flood on the NE Branch trail low point by the rail bridge.

and the Metro tracks at Lake Artemsia…

and Lake Artemesia (wait, it is actually still flooded as of this afternoon)…

and under the East West Highway….

and maybe at the end of the College Park airpark…

[Steve O]

I believe it was 2005 was the worst BTWD ever. Steady, constant rain and only about 44 degrees. I started contracting hypothermia at Freedom Plaza and could barely ride the last mile to my office. The warm shower never felt so good.

Yes, just looked it up. May 20, 2005 it rained 2.63 inches. The record rainfall for DC on that date is, you guessed it, 2.63 inches (2005)

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2005/5/20/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

It shows the temp was more like low 50’s, but it sure seemed a lot more miserable than that.

I suspect there were a lot of leftover t-shirts that day.

[peterw_diy]

Thanks, Steve. That was the first day I biked to work since moving to the DC area. I lost my favorite helmet cover on the ride in, and pedaled through a puddle on the MVT deep enough to cover my bottom bracket. There were no showers at work. At least I didn’t have a flat.

[vern]

The times indicated on Greenbelt’s map above are Greenwich Mean Time, so the map covers Thursday evening to Friday evening. That would be one big pile of water for the Friday morning commute if that is realized.

[jrenaut]

Rule 9, motherb**ches!

[Author]

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