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Thread: Lets hope the weather forecast is wrong...

  1. #11
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    I greatly prefer heat. Sweat in humidity may or may not evaporate, but sweat in rain gear definitely won't and cold rain saps heat and gives you a chill while you're still wet and clammy from sweating in the rain gear. I also worry about reduced visibility--I get a lot more nervous around cars when there's a driving rain because I'm concerned about how well they can see (and at the same time they need more room to stop). And then there are the trails with poop floods...

    So, overall, 50-60 degree thunderstorms on friday just sounds grim.

  2. #12
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    I don't spend much time looking at the numerical models, but with it being a frontal passage, it could be a few hours of heavy rain, then clearing skies after it passes, as opposed to an all-day rain event. If it happens in the middle of the day, then commutes could be minimally affected.

    BUT as several of you in this thread have already proclaimed superior expertise in weather predicting over meteorologists, I'm sure we'll either get a hurricane, or a snowstorm.

  3. #13
    DismalScientist is offline I really need to log off the internet and go for a ride.
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    Quote Originally Posted by creadinger View Post
    I'm sure we'll either get ... a snowstorm.
    Woohoo!

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by creadinger View Post
    I don't spend much time looking at the numerical models, but with it being a frontal passage, it could be a few hours of heavy rain, then clearing skies after it passes, as opposed to an all-day rain event. If it happens in the middle of the day, then commutes could be minimally affected.

    BUT as several of you in this thread have already proclaimed superior expertise in weather predicting over meteorologists, I'm sure we'll either get a hurricane, or a snowstorm.
    12z GFS and NAM looks to me like a washout for the morning, but maybe dryer by evening.




  5. #15
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    note that BTWD gear is also suitable for boat to work day

  6. #16
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    The NAM isn't very reliable 3 days out, however, in this instance it does resemble the GFS (we may need a sub-forum for cyclist weather geeks).

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by vern View Post
    The NAM isn't very reliable 3 days out, however, in this instance it does resemble the GFS (we may need a sub-forum for cyclist weather geeks).
    Here's morning LWX discussion, with all the sexy met abbrevs:

    FROM LATE THU INTO MIDDAY FRI...WAVES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
    APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER
    ACTIVITY LIKELY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL ADD THE ELEMENT OF MIXING
    DOWN ISOLATED GUSTY TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS - ESPEC ON FRI AFTN.
    THE MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER IS FLOODING FROM THE 1-3 INCHES OF EXPECTED
    QPF...LOCALLY HIGHER. THE SFC SYSTEM NOT QUITE IN CONSENSUS AMONGST
    THE MED RANGE MEMBERS...BUT A TREND TOWARD THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO
    TRACK NEAR THE AREA DURING THE FIRST-HALF OF THE DAY ON FRI. THE
    TRACK OF THE STRONGER OF THE SFC LOWS WILL DETERMINE THE CONVECTIVE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA. THE MORE OF OUR AREA THAT IS SOUTH AND EAST
    OF THE LOW - THE BETTER THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
    CONVECTION. THE FURTHER SOUTH THE LOW IS RELATIVE TO OUR
    REGION...THE MORE GENERAL STRATIFORM AND MAINLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE
    RAIN.

  8. #18
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    OH NO not expected QPF!

    What's QPF?

    And Greenbelt, how did you post that without the forum anti-shouting alarm going off?

  9. #19
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    Well, in the past six B2WDs, we've only had one rainy morning, quello che sara, sara.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by jrenaut View Post
    OH NO not expected QPF!

    What's QPF?
    QPF?! Run for the hills!

    On another note, sorry, but I couldn't resist the temptation. Excuse my snarkiness.

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