Waymo simulation study shows hypothetical big reduction in fatal crashes

[Steve O]

The bumper sticker you posted in your first post implies something different -- that there is at least some significant decrease in accidents altogether and across the board. "Completely avoided"! Yes, this is the click-bait internet we live in, and details, nuances, and caveats matter, but that quote would lead the reader to believe that autonomous vehicles are the way to automotive safety.

My bumper sticker is accurate: The simulations "completely avoided or mitigated" 100% of the crashes. I do not take responsibility for how the journalist wrote the article, but I did read the study itself (well, skimmed), and the study, IMO, is fair in how it characterizes what they studied, how they carried it out, and their results.

Depending on what you mean by "automotive safety," I do believe that widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will result in "at least some significant decrease in accidents altogether and across the board," yes. Particularly as a bike rider, this makes me feel good.

If by "automotive safety" you mean complete elimination of all crashes, then I agree that is likely impossible.

[trailrunner]

Which part of that are you skeptical of?

Waymo says autonomous cars could have prevented most fatal Chandler crashes in 10-year period

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[trailrunner]

My bumper sticker is accurate: The simulations "completely avoided or mitigated" 100% of the crashes. I do not take responsibility for how the journalist wrote the article, but I did read the study itself (well, skimmed), and the study, IMO, is fair in how it characterizes what they studied, how they carried it out, and their results.

Sorry, but I disagree. The bumper sticker (and headline) clearly implies that autonomous vehicles can eliminate all accidents. Apply the reasonable person standard.

If I had put that bumpersticker on one of my briefings, I'd be in big trouble (understatement) because it's misleading and doesn't tell the entire study. (OTOH, I'm an engineer, not a marketer.)

Companies have been overselling autonomy for a long time. It's not there yet. I'm listening to a company presentation right now. It's not there yet.

Depending on what you mean by "automotive safety," I do believe that widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will result in "at least some significant decrease in accidents altogether and across the board," yes. Particularly as a bike rider, this makes me feel good.

Autonomous vehicles terrify me, and not because I fear skynet. I have developed hardware and software for autonomous vehicles and I know how hard it is, and I know how what the current state of the art is.

I agree that distracted driving, impaired driving, road rage, and speeding are major human factors leading to car crashes. Autonomous vehicles presumably wouldn't have these problems, so they have that potential advantage. Someday we may get there, but the timeline is not measured decades, not years.

[Steve O]

Sorry, but I disagree. The bumper sticker (and headline) clearly implies that autonomous vehicles can eliminate all accidents. Apply the reasonable person standard.

Okay. I took the bumper sticker off my original post. That sentence, of course, is still in the article, but is surrounded by more context. The study is available for anyone to read for themselves.

[Steve O]

Autonomous vehicles terrify me, and not because I fear skynet. I have developed hardware and software for autonomous vehicles and I know how hard it is, and I know how what the current state of the art is.

I agree that distracted driving, impaired driving, road rage, and speeding are major human factors leading to car crashes. Autonomous vehicles presumably wouldn't have these problems, so they have that potential advantage. Someday we may get there, but the timeline is measured in decades, not years.

These things you point out in your second paragraph terrify me even more.

I will take 100% autonomous cars in their best current state of development at the intersection of Lynn and Lee in Arlington above human drivers. Today.

Like most technologies, it will not happen all at once. Autonomous vehicles are already being used in certain contexts (campuses, for instance). They will expand their presence as they get better. I will bet you a month's salary that as autonomous vehicles as a share of vehicles on the road grows and the share of human drivers declines, fatalities and injuries to all road users will also decline. I, for one, can hardly wait.

[mstone]

I agree that distracted driving, impaired driving, road rage, and speeding are major human factors leading to car crashes. Autonomous vehicles presumably wouldn't have these problems, so they have that potential advantage.

Unless someone programs in an ego, or tendency to start thinking about things other than driving, or a fear that driving defensively will make their reproductive organs smaller, autonomous vehicles have many advantages. Simply not speeding through residential neighborhoods would cut the death rate, even if they hit the same number of people.

[peterw_diy]

Unless someone programs in an ego, or tendency to start thinking about things other than driving, or a fear that driving defensively will make their reproductive organs smaller, autonomous vehicles have many advantages. Simply not speeding through residential neighborhoods would cut the death rate, even if they hit the same number of people.

Unless folks offset the reduced lethality per mile by travelling more auto miles. Autonomous cars promise to remove the tedium of driving. Heading to the far side of the District at rush hour? Who cares if it takes two hours? Watch a movie, read a book, make some phone calls, nap, whatever you want. Let the climate control shield you from the unpleasant weather that your energy consumption is worsening, and rationalize your consumption by arguing that the car's algorithm is a safe driver than you are.

[accordioneur]

We accept way less than perfection from our human drivers. Upwards of 35,000 people die in car accidents every year in the U.S., and another 4.4 million people suffer serious enough injury to seek medical attention, and yet we haven't prohibited the use of the automobile. Autonomous vehicles will be imperfect. They'll just be imperfect in different ways than human drivers. Autonomous vehicles are not distracted by their phones or by their kids. They won't nod off behind the wheel on long highway drives. With 360 degree sensors don't miss seeing cars or bicyclists in their blind spots. An autonomous car would not forget to look before pulling out of a parking space and collide with a cyclist -- an incident I experienced as a cyclist. However, autonomous vehicles will make mistakes, including some which would likely have been avoided by a human driver. I don't demand perfection from self-driving cars; I'll be comfortable as long as they drive better than the humans I see on the road, which is not that high a bar.

Also, recognize that autonomy is a continuum. My current car has various blind-spot detectors, lane departure alert and correction features, and so on. We can keep making cars safer by adding more of these self-driving/driver-assist features in as the technology matures, even while they fall short of full autonomy.

[Smitty2k1]

Hi everyone, your friendly government auto safety expert here. If you have any questions related to vehicle safety systems feel free to ask and I'll provide what facts we have. I work in the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). You may know us by our "5 star" crash test ratings, but we also evaluate a variety of drive assistance technologies such as AEB.

NHTSA.gov/ratings

I also work in pedestrian crashworthiness safety and have additional background experience in child passenger safety. Also rollover safety. Also electric vehicle safety. Ok so I wear a lot of hats.

Pat Smith


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