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Thread: Bike Tour of Climate Impacts in DC

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    Default Bike Tour of Climate Impacts in DC

    Did you know that DC has a 65% chance of seeing a flood over 8 ft in the next 30 years?

    As climate change spurs rising seas, what parts of DC are most vulnerable to flooding? This all-ages bike ride will tour the parts of the city most susceptible to climate impacts. Citizens' Climate Lobby will lead participants to DC sites where sea barriers are planned and have already been built, and where flooding is expected. The trail will be under 5 miles and friendly to riders of all ages and skill levels.

    FUN RIDE: After the last stop, more experienced cyclists can join for a fun ride along the beautiful Anacostia River Trail to Kenilworth Gardens.

    Sat, May 11, 2019
    1:00 PM 2:30 PM EDT

    Location
    US Navy Memorial Plaza (7th & Pennsylvania NW)
    In front of Archives Metro Station

    REGISTER HERE: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/bike-to...ts-60536200405

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    DismalScientist is offline I really need to log off the internet and go for a ride.
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    According to climatechange.org, sea levels will rise between 4 inches and 19 inches by 2050. This implies without climate change, DC faces a 65% chance of seeing a flood over 6.5 to 7.75 ft in the next 30 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DismalScientist View Post
    According to climatechange.org, sea levels will rise between 4 inches and 19 inches by 2050. This implies without climate change, DC faces a 65% chance of seeing a flood over 6.5 to 7.75 ft in the next 30 years.
    And the Navy is planning to invest big $$$ in DC to adapt to this flooding/sea level rise. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...vy-yard-in-d-c

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    Quote Originally Posted by mbroad View Post
    And the Navy is planning to invest big $$$ in DC to adapt to this flooding/sea level rise. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...vy-yard-in-d-c
    Oh no, not another wall!

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    Quote Originally Posted by mbroad View Post
    Did you know that DC has a 65% chance of seeing a flood over 8 ft in the next 30 years?

    As climate change spurs rising seas, what parts of DC are most vulnerable to flooding? This all-ages bike ride will tour the parts of the city most susceptible to climate impacts. Citizens' Climate Lobby will lead participants to DC sites where sea barriers are planned and have already been built, and where flooding is expected. The trail will be under 5 miles and friendly to riders of all ages and skill levels.

    FUN RIDE: After the last stop, more experienced cyclists can join for a fun ride along the beautiful Anacostia River Trail to Kenilworth Gardens.

    Sat, May 11, 2019
    1:00 PM – 2:30 PM EDT

    Location
    US Navy Memorial Plaza (7th & Pennsylvania NW)
    In front of Archives Metro Station

    REGISTER HERE: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/bike-to...ts-60536200405
    I'd love to see this in Arlington, and would hope it would point out how the bike network is impacted by flooding.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dasgeh View Post
    I'd love to see this in Arlington, and would hope it would point out how the bike network is impacted by flooding.
    Komorebi has something climate change related in the works for June . Not sure if it will get in to trail impacts.

    The Friends of Dyke Marsh have a quarterly meeting this month where the speaker will talk about sea level rise and the impact on Dyke Marsh (which will impact most of the MVT in the same way).


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    DismalScientist is offline I really need to log off the internet and go for a ride.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mbroad View Post
    And the Navy is planning to invest big $$$ in DC to adapt to this flooding/sea level rise. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...vy-yard-in-d-c
    1.3 foot rise by 2035? You guys need to come up with a consistent set of numbers before one can figure out how to address these issues. How does a 1.3 foot over the next 16 years compare with historic sea level rises.

    I noticed something about a rise in sea levels requiring walls around the Jefferson Memorial, but the article also mentioned ground subsidence also contributing to the need for walls. Only one of these is affected by climate change.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DismalScientist View Post
    1.3 foot rise by 2035? You guys need to come up with a consistent set of numbers before one can figure out how to address these issues.
    Climate scientists, unlike economists, recognize that they can't predict the future precisely and so they give ranges. You have to plan as best you can within the precision of the forecast. I will also point out that 16 inches by 2035 is not inconsistent with 4-19 inches by 2050.

    Quote Originally Posted by DismalScientist View Post
    How does a 1.3 foot over the next 16 years compare with historic sea level rises.
    Great question. Reminds me of when my elderly father almost drowned in Hurricane Sandy. He refused to leave his house before the storm because historically, it had never flooded.

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    Assuming a modicum of linearity in the system will make a 16 inch rise in 16 years inconsistent with the high estimate of 19 inches in 31 years.

    Actually, the 4 to 19 inches came from a 2008 publication. It's 2019 now. How is that prediction panning out?

    The only reason I'm being a pain here is given the relative magnitude of sea level rise and flood level heights caused by storms means that the 65% probably of an 8 foot flood, of true, is almost completely unrelated to sea level rise, presumably the harm associated with climate change.

    On the notion of model consistency, if models of the same thing generate different results, how do we choose which model to trust?

    PS: Any forecasting economist who doesn't provide a standard error (a measure of range) when asked with his estimates should be drummed out of the profession.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DismalScientist View Post
    Assuming a modicum of linearity in the system will make a 16 inch rise in 16 years inconsistent with the high estimate of 19 inches in 31 years.
    I don't know why one would assume linearity.

    The only reason I'm being a pain here is given the relative magnitude of sea level rise and flood level heights caused by storms means that the 65% probably of an 8 foot flood, of true, is almost completely unrelated to sea level rise, presumably the harm associated with climate change.
    Sea level rise is one outcome of climate change, more frequent and more severe storms is another. Both can combine to amplify the effects of each.

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