Here are three pictures of the rear derailleur, from different angles. It does not appear out of place to me, but perhaps others have more insight.
I again looked at the chain. I saw nothing that looked to me like a bad link, no loose plates, and it moved smoothly over the jockey wheel. It did make slipping noises over the cassette gear, but I could not what physically was doing that.
I am thinking of just taking it in to a bike shop at this point. There is one a block from here, and I am sorely tempted.
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