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dasgeh
11-02-2012, 01:43 PM
Someone posted on our neighborhood listserv (Cherrydale) that they saw a prediction for a winter storm next Tuesday night. It's possibly nothing, though they mentioned this illusive "European model" of weather forecasting. I don't want to spread rumors, but I figured I'd ask the weather-gurus around here whether they'd heard anything...

jabberwocky
11-02-2012, 01:46 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/new-noreaster-may-hit-east-coast-next-week/2012/11/01/8927312c-2453-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html

ronwalf
11-02-2012, 01:53 PM
That would be this article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/new-noreaster-may-hit-east-coast-next-week/2012/11/01/8927312c-2453-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html?tid=pm_local_pop). At this point in the year, the "winter storm" (if it hits) will just be gusty, grey, and wet.

(boo, beaten to the punch)

Dirt
11-02-2012, 02:52 PM
Boo! got my hopes up for a *real* winter storm. Oh well. Cold rain is good too. :D

Certifried
11-02-2012, 03:09 PM
Isn't this a little like the boy who cried wolf? They keep playing up these storms, I heard them say "a nor'easter!" all excitedly. They make it sound so Armageddonish, then when a "REAL" storm (like Sandy) hits, people say "that's what you always say". Now there are a lot of dead people. When it finally comes around to the Zombie Apocalypse, I hope people don't take it lightly.

Greenbelt
11-02-2012, 06:12 PM
Unfortunately, this afternoon's run of the main US medium term model has come into agreement with the Euro. Lots of blustery rain next Wednesday. We really need the sun to come out this weekend and dry out the ground before the next rainstorm -- otherwise more flooding on our riverside trails a possibility.

Bilsko
11-02-2012, 06:50 PM
Oh well. Cold rain is good too. :D

Mmmmm.... I **LOVE** commuting in 34F degree rain. Nothing beats cold + water that just wont freeze.
/rant
Have I mentioned how much I love my new rain commuting gear? Yes? OK, well, I will again. Cadence Blockade rain pants + Patagonia H2NO jacket = dry commute!

creadinger
11-04-2012, 01:56 PM
Isn't this a little like the boy who cried wolf? They keep playing up these storms, I heard them say "a nor'easter!" all excitedly. They make it sound so Armageddonish, then when a "REAL" storm (like Sandy) hits, people say "that's what you always say". Now there are a lot of dead people. When it finally comes around to the Zombie Apocalypse, I hope people don't take it lightly.

Man, many of those dead people died of their own choosing and it is NOT the fault of weather forecasts... unless you're Italian and you believe that seismologists should be jailed for not forecasting an earthquake (death of science, but what do you expect from Italians). It is ridiculous that people can live on the coast and not understand weather. Many of these same people don't heed evacuation warnings because of stupid excuses and now they're dead. The government can't regulate stupidity.

Anyway, Nor'easters have a history of bombing out and undergoing rapid cyclogenesis so even a modest one can turn into a monster in as little as a day. They cause severe coastal erosion and flooding and blizzard conditions in higher elevations and strong gusty winds over a huge area. They're worth the early hype, even though this won't be as bad as SS Sandy. The ECMWF model is elusive because it's not free to look at like the GFS or other American models. The ECMWF is generally agreed to be the best model.

dasgeh
11-05-2012, 08:58 AM
The problem I have with internet-age weather forecasting is that they don't seem to do a good job at forecasting for specific areas. E.g. this Nor'easter -- sounds like it'll be cold and wet here, but possibly blizzard-y and dangerous elsewhere. Simple enough, but it seemed to take some digging to get there. Even the Post's CWG goes on about how the storm has the potential to be very severe -- in other places. I would appreciate a localized approach where you could quickly figure out the likely impact for the area you're in.

vvill
11-05-2012, 09:35 AM
I thought the forecasting was excellent for this hurricane, and I was surprised at the number of dead given how serious the warnings were (but that may just be my ignorance). I guess maybe they should've had forced evacuations but that opens up several other cans of worms.

I do think you have to wait until closer to the event to get a more accurate local forecast. The only potential "issue" with relying on CWG is that they are weather geeks as well as forecasters so they don't just disseminate local weather forecast information and you may have to sift more for a summary. For me, that's a good thing though as I find it interesting and feel like I'm learning when I read their posts.